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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-08-24T13:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-08-24T13:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17572/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen in LASCO only. Source is a significant eruption from AR 2859 preceded by a B8.8 flare peaking at 2021-08-24T12:16Z. Dark material can be seen moving off the disk in SDO AIA 304 and 193 starting after 2021-08-24T12:03Z and a darkening with an EIT wave can be seen in EUVIA 195 starting after 2021-08-24T12:05Z. Arrival note: There is an increase of B total to over 16 nT, with a period of negative Bz reaching -13nT. There is no increase in solar wind speed at DSCOVR.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T11:42Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-08-27T16:34Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]

% Compiled module: EAM_V3.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 454.0 km/s 
The EAM version you are running is: v3
u_r =      292.122
Acceleration:       1.92907
Duration in seconds:        270562.47
Duration in days:        3.1315101
t2 is negative
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   1.93 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  814.1 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 27/08/2021 Time: 16:34 UT

Lead Time: 4.53 hour(s)
Difference: -4.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-08-27T07:10Z

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